Deforestation has same 'fingerprint' as fossil fuel combustion

Several climate metrics are claimed to be fingerprints showing that human fossil fuel combustion caused the recent atmospheric carbon dioxide rise [1, 2]. These are:

1) Rising CO2 and falling oxygen
2) Falling 13C/12C ratio
3) CO2 is highest in ~800,000 years

Decline in 13C/12C ratio not keeping pace with fossil fuel combustion emissions

One of the key "fingerprints" of human influence in the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide is the declination in d13C, the ratio between 13C/12C.

Fossil fuels are supposed to have more of the carbon-12 isotope in comparison to the carbon-13 isotope compared to what's "average" in the atmosphere prior to burning. Hence burning fossil fuels should decrease the 13C/12C ratio. And this is what's found.

But while human emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion are only increasing with time (you should see what China's doing)...

Teasing the data to get the trend you want

"The cherries are picked mainly on the plains..."

Feldman et al 2015 (link) [1, 2] is supposed to be one of these 'smoking guns' of CO2-induced doom Team Consensus likes to refer to [3, 4]. Here's a graph from that paper.

At first glance a few things seemed odd:

Harries et al 2001 corrected graphs

The labels were switched on graph 1a. So I switched them back to correct them. You can verify that the graph is now correct considering the difference graph figure 1b:

Source

The broken pea shooter

I've been looking into so-called smoking gun of greenhouse gas absorption: Harries et al 2001, and came across a rather hard to obtain, obscure 2003 follow-up paper by Harries co-authored with Brindley that basically nullifies the 2001 finding.

The paper is called Observations of the Infrared Outgoing Spectrum of the Earth from Space: The Effects of Temporal and Spatial Sampling by Brindley and Harries (hereafter B & H 2003).

Turns out sampling limitations (etc) in the later 1997 IMG instrument gave rise to errors that effectively nullify the following graph (as depicted on the SkS website):

RSS Satellite Temperature Lower Troposphere Australia

=========================
UPDATE 10 March 2017: I got the longitude wrong by 180 degrees. Explanation here:

http://planetaryvision.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/rss-temp-anomaly-for-australia.html

Graph should look like this:



It was still close enough though. There is no warming in Australia during satellite period.

END UPDATE.
=========================

Now that I can open NetCDF files in Matlab I can look at various climate-related data files and reveal data by longitude and latitude, kind of like Steven Goddard does only not as good.

You can get the data for RSS TLT here:

http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature
↳
ftp://ftp.remss.com/msu/data/netcdf

Using the file:
"uat4_tb_v03r03_anom_chtlt_197812_201509.nc3.nc" I can dial in any latitude and longitude or area.

First, for comparison sake here's what I get averaging the whole earth:

Difference in longwave radiation between top and bottom of atmosphere

I downloaded data from 1979 to today of NCEP reanalysis-2 of upward longwave radiation from this page. Look for the files that are about 30MB in size.

Slightly updated OLR graph

At first these NetCDF files with extensions like .nc and .cdf were a bit of a mystery to me. These files won't open in everyday programs I'm used to like Excel or text editors.  But I'm making progress manipulating them in Matlab.

A website I often refer to for OLR graphs is Ole Humlum's Climate4You.com's temperature page here (excerpt with just the OLR graphs here).

But I guess that page needs to be manually updated and was last updated 2011; the data stops around 2010. Here's the first OLR graph from that page with global coverage using NOAA satellites that started measuring in June 1974:

Outgoing longwave radiation basically follows air temperature

Just tinkering with a few climate-related files concerning outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for an upcoming post.

Supposedly this OLR portion of earth's outgoing spectrum is curtailed by greenhouse gas "heat trapping" and should go down. Instead the opposite is found.

Basically OLR follows earth's average air temps as you'd expect and there is no CO2-related "heat trapping" evident.

The very existence of the tropospheric vertical temperature gradient nullifies the possibility of a greenhouse effect

Scientists such as Luboš Motl believe a greenhouse effect exists in the atmosphere because of the existence of a negative vertical temperature gradient, which averages -6.5C per kilometer of altitude (adiabatic lapse).

Tropospheric negative vertical temperature gradient (right)

Why David Evans' greenhouse effect definition can't work

On the Jo Nova website is a recent attempt to portray a greenhouse effect:

Source: New Science 6: How the Greenhouse Effect Works and “four pipes” to space

Upper troposphere warming slower than lower

In AGW theory higher layers of the troposphere are supposed to warm faster than lower ones. But the hotspot is missing: as you move up in the troposphere RSS satellite shows the warming rate is less.

At the lowest level, TLT, the warming rate is 0.121K/decade and gets less as you move up:

Tail wags dog: bogus claim air temps can speed up glacier

At the RockyRex blog the debunked claim that a slight rise in air temperature can speed a glacier up is trotted out:

There's a New York Times graphic with a dodgy caption claiming that the ice is moving faster than can be replaced by falling snow.

Stratosphere not cooling as predicted

A supposed fingerprint of carbon dioxide-induced Anthropogenic Global Warming is a warming of the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. But this alleged fingerprint's been missing in action the last few years.

I superimposed two horizontal red lines on the below graph of lower stratosphere temperature (via the SkS website) which shows a flatlining for about a decade, before the graph conveniently stops in 2005:

Julia Slingo: claims temps 'rapidly rising' on Sky News UK

No wonder no-one trusts climate scientists anymore.  Julia Slingo of the British Met Office manages to contradict herself in the same breath, at once claiming that it's rapidly warming, then admitting that 2014, 2015 & 2016 are only among the hottest on record and may or not indeed be the hottest.



Is global average temperature rapidly warming as claimed? There's been no warming for 18 1/2 years according to the satellite record and only minimal warming in the surface record.

If global warming is CO2-induced why is there so much more in the northern hemisphere?

Both satellite and surface-based temperature records show warming at almost twice the rate in the northern hemisphere as the southern:

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

GisTemp up-tweaking started around 2003 during Hansen era

Global Warming arch-architect James Hansen implemented a policy of deliberate up-tweaking to satisfy his government paymaster's desire to hype the global warming crisis.

Remember Hansen was the guy who testified in front of Congress in a room with the air conditioning switched off for added effect to scare the masses about 'atmospheric heat build-up'.

By the time current NASA GISS director Gavin Schmidt took over from Hansen a couple years ago the up-tweaking had well and truly begun.

I took the Gistemp data and overlayed the UAH v6 data and produced this graph:

Then I took the GISS data and subtracted the UAH v6 data and made this graph:

Blog format upgraded

I'm by no means an IT expert, but I like to tinker with html code now and then, and after years of tweaking I have finally upgraded this blog to a format I'm happy with.

I only just figured out how to truncate the posts on the home page to an excerpt and a link to more.

I thought the white background was too bright so I made it grey.

The main feature is a navigation bar at the top of the page I pilfered from some site.

Blogspot is the best and most tweakable free blog platform of the few I have tried, including wordpress.com.

Brazilian deforestation proceeds apace: creates 'dreaded' CO2

One of the assumptions of AGW theory is that human direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion causes the atmospheric CO2 rise.

But sceptics needn't be bound by such convention and are free to consider other possibilities.

Wishful trendline on Tamino wildfire graph?

Stats guru Tamino is like the bizarro superman, the anti-hero, of the statistics world, using his statistical powers to mislead his readers rather than inform. In a 2 1/2 year old post, he attempts to debunk a Washington Post article.

He graphs US wildland fire acreage and adds a curiously extreme red trendline. It would be nice to know if that red line was algorithm generated or custom-manipulated.

Manufacturing sea level rise acceleration

It's claimed that both increased land ice melt and ocean heat uptake are occurring. Melting land ice is supposedly on the increase, and the missing heat of the global warming pause is supposedly going into the ocean.

If the missing heat was miraculously going into the deep ocean it would cause thermal expansion, but this expansion is not observed [1, 2, 3].

Some curious up-tweaking happening at NASA GISS

Some curious up-tweaking happening at NASA GISS temperature data base versus satellite data base.

.@iyosemite @ForecastFacts It's not #Democrats reading temps but inappropriately adjusting them. E.g. @ClimateOfGavin pic.twitter.com/t9flkxSKNB

— Paul Clark (@cbfool) May 16, 2015

No relation between water vapour and Outgoing Longwave Radiation

This post is a stub -- something I mean to make better at some point. E.g. get vapour & temp data maps for same time frame.
=============
No Greenhouse Effect evident comparing so-called number one greenhouse gas water vapour map to map of outgoing longwave radiation. As a "trapper of heat" water vapour really sucks.

A few maps of water vapour (google search):

Tom Nelson & Steve Goddard suspension, a reminder Twitter's part of the Establishment

Twitter, like Facebook, is a part of the establishment. When Steve Goddard & Tom Nelson's climate questions got too hot under the collar they were suspended.

Goddard's account was reinstated after an outcry. But Goddard's suspension lasted only about twelve hours from my observation; Tom Nelson's (@tan123) has been suspended for 2 days now.