10 December 2009

My Summary disproving AGW

 1) Humans are not causing the CO2 increase

Humans are not the likely cause of the steady increase in CO2 reflected in the upward Keeling Curve (see figure below) of the Mauna Loa observations.  There is a dC13 carbon isotope ratio reduction often said by AGW believers to be a "fossil fuel signature".  It is not.  As you will see below fossil fuels aren't even from organic or "fossil" origins.  The slight reduction in the carbon 13 isotope with respect to the carbon 12 isotope can be produced by many means.  In fact, it has been statistically correlated to changes in the ocean produced by the El Nino effect:

Roy Spencer on how Oceans are Driving CO2

Spencer Part2: More CO2 Peculiarities – The C13/C12 Isotope Ratio
An Example of the Little-Moron Logic & Mendacity of BOOP: The Carbon Isotope Ratio Nonsense. (new link)

So, it's not us but nature.  Warmth, a change in ocean currents, solar cycles, changes in land use and in the biosphere can all affect changes in CO2.

 2) Nature sources and sinks dwarf our output

    The link above is sourced from the IPCC 2007 report which admits that 700 billion tons of gaseous carbon dioxide are produced and absorbed each year by nature, mostly in the biosphere.  We emit 26 billion tons or 3.7% of what nature does (3.6% of the total).

     3) The rate of CO2 increase is "unprecedented"

    Using conversion ratio 7.7 gigatons = 1ppm CO2 air  (Wiki page says there is 3,000Gt in air / 387 ppm = 7.75 Gt/ppm) the annual CO2 flux is 90ppm.  If nature's sources of CO2 were turned off it would take 4 years for all the CO2 to be sucked from the atmosphere.  I hope this puts in perspective the huge capability nature has to neutralise our CO2.  Our emissions, estimated at 3.4ppm per year are just a bit player in this huge natural flux.

    Consider this CO2 measurement from Mauna Loa (1, 2):

    Note the huge seasonal variation of 6ppm - the seasonal squiggle (sawtooth waveform).  Every northern winter sources outweigh sinks to produce a gain of 20ppm/yr for several months (centre of red circle).  The yearly average increase of 2ppm is surpassed every northern winter by a factor of 10. It shows that nature is totally in charge of the CO2 content of the air.  It can easily account for our puny 3.4ppm/year.  Notions that nature is struggling to keep up with human CO2 are absurd.

    And it's impossible to tell if the current yearly average increase is unprecedented because proxies for CO2 concentration such as dC13 can only be resolved in sediment samples to within a few thousand years (1).

    Plus, I have heard Prof Ian Plimer say that the volcanic perturbations of CO2 are somehow "smoothed out" of the Mauna Loa "observations".

    More posts on CO2 levels from me here and here.

     4) The first 50 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere does the heating


       5) Global temperatures are level/declining

      One of the most amazing things to come out of this Climategate thing is that this line we've been fed that earth warmed over the 1900's appears to be totally falsified.  E.g. the NZ temp record is fudged.

      AGW faked temperature of New Zealand:


      And yes, I have heard of the explanation from them about the need to tweak every single station as a result of a location changes at two stations and my answer is: why not just treat each station as a separate station? Why the need for any combined stations at all?  How can the application of a step function adjustment result in a gradual upward sloping?  It makes no sense.  It's a con job.

       6) The oceans are not rising

        Sea Level Graphs from UC and some perspectives

         7) Antarctic glaciers are not melting

           8) Himalayan glaciers are not melting

                See your local glass of water containing ice cubes.

                 11) Warmer temperatures will not result in higher sea levels

                  There is slight thermal expansion with warmth but a melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets would be required to create any substantial rise and this would take thousands of years even if the air temp went up by 10C.

                   12) The Maldives are not sinking

                    They're building an awful lot of new resorts there for a place that's sinking.

                    Despite popular opinion and calls to action, the Maldives are not being overrun by sea level rise

                    Hear Swedish scientist Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner describe how Australian scientists tore down the tree which showed that the sea level in the Maldives hasn't risen for 50 years on the Alex Jones Show here.

                     13) Middle Ages warm period was 2 - 4C hotter than today

                      Grapes grown at Hadrian's Wall, farms in Greenland; it's an inconvenient truth Michael Mann tried to hide in his hockey stick graph.

                       14) 4.5 billion years of climate change and only now we are to blame?

                      The following graph is from The Paleomap project:

                      As you can see we are in a cool period now.  And no worldwide death millions of years ago when the average temp was more than 10C warmer.

                      And these temperature proxy ice cores from Greenland and Vostok  only go back 450,000 years but you get the idea - the temp goes up and down.

                      As you can see from the gradient of the small uptick at the end of the above graph (linked ice core one) - the recent blade of the hockey stick - the gradient of temperature increase is mild compared to past events.  As also emphasised by this graph below (note this graph is flipped horizontally compared to the orientation in the previous link):

                      Above graph from here

                      Courtesy University of Texas

                       15) Mt Kilimanjaro is not warming

                         16) The oceans are not acidifying

                              Prof Richard Lindzen and Choi of MIT published a paper as recently as August of 2009 measuring changes in outbound radiation from earth as measured by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Satellite that outgoing radiation is keeping up with warming temperatures. The atmosphere is nowhere near as good as a glass panel on a greenhouse at trapping heat.

                              Consider that the moon's average temperature is -23C (-9.4F) - other estimates have it higher, like -10C, plus it varies by 6C from aphelion to perihelion, but it's a generalisation anyway cause in reality there is a dichotomy of -153C during the night to 107C during the day.   Earth is 15C, or 38C warmer than the moon   The entire earth atmosphere provides about 38C warming (on average).  The IPCC says that an increase of 280 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere, a doubling of pre-industrial levels, will produce 6C of warming. They expect us to believe a 7/25000 change in the atmosphere can produce 3/20 as much warming as the entire existing atmosphere!  (Although nitrogen and oxygen provide no greenhouse heating, so it is a 19/2000 change in actual greenhouse gas (including H2O and CO2) for 3/20 as much heating.)

                              The ERBES experiment shows the warming for a doubling of CO2 is at most 1C.  (This estimate concerns the ERBE data.  Better estimates for CO2 warming suggest a doubling of CO2 won't produce any noticeable rise.)

                              On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data

                              Lord Christopher Monckton Speaking in St. Paul

                              Slides accompanying Lord Monckton's lecture

                              Satellite and Climate Model Evidence Against Substantial Manmade Climate Change 

                              Global Warming Not Caused By CO2

                               19) Water is a far more significant greenhouse gas than CO2
                                Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System 

                                Using the above link we produce about 0.28% of all greenhouse gases when water vapour is taken into account - not enough to sign our freedoms and liberties away for.

                                 20) Tipping points such as "clathrate guns" are not present today
                                  No evidence as such, but wouldn't this "gun" have gone off during the Medieval Warm Period if it existed?

                                  Consider the above Paleomap temperature  chart stretching back throughout 2 billion years of earth's history.  You'll see it maxes out at about 25C average - 10C warmer than today.  This shows a negative feedback, like a cap - a thermostat effect.  This is the opposite of a tipping point so promoted by AGW fear mongers.

                                   21) Even if we did have 1 - 2C warming it would be a good thing not a bad thing
                                    Just like the Middle Ages warm period - a good time. 

                                     22) Drought in south Australia caused by Indian Ocean not global warming

                                      Indian Ocean linked to Australian droughts

                                       23) CO2 rise lags warmth, not leads

                                      CO2, Temperatures, and Ice Ages 

                                         24) Tree rings are not a good proxy for temperature

                                          Tree-o-mometers are useless (i.e tree ring temp proxy data) because cosmic radiation affects tree ring growth more than anything:

                                          Cosmic pattern to UK tree growth

                                          That's why Micheal Mann had a divergence problem.  It's cause tree rings aren't even remotely a reliable temperature proxy, hence he used a trick to hide the decline by grafting on real temps where it suited. 

                                           25) The suns solar cycles affect cloud cover on earth

                                          The Cloud Mystery 1/6

                                          The Cloud Mystery

                                             26) Fossil fuels are not even fossil fuels
                                              They are produced continuously deep underground by the earth:


                                              Dismissal of the Claims of a Biological Connection for Natural Petroleum.

                                              MEASURABLE C14 IN FOSSILIZED ORGANIC MATERIALS

                                               27) "Scepticism is funded by big oil"

                                                Take a look at this page with all the pigs lining up at the trough of global warming.

                                                U.S. Climate Action Partnership (USCAP)

                                                Update 17 Feb 2010: BP, ConocoPhillips and Caterpillar have now pulled out of the US-CAP as it collapses due to climategate and the whole climate fraud being revealed daily.

                                                Shell oil is still in at this point, one of the companies who funds CRU.  The CRU was started with funding by Shell and BP.  See this article and in particular the 5th comment by "Andrew" which says: 

                                                The Climate Research Unit (CRU) in the UK was set up in 1971 with funding from Shell and BP as is described in the book: The History of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, page 285, by Michael Sanderson. The CRU was still being funded in 2008 by Shell, BP, the Nuclear Installations Inspectorate and UK Nirex LTD (the nuclear waste disposals people in the UK).

                                                 28) Well then what is causing global warming?
                                                  On a macro scale the Milankovitch cycles control warming and cooling cycles of the ice ages, but what of shorter term changes?  Could sun changes be responsible? Maybe.  Could ocean changes be responsible? Probably.  Could land use changes be responsible? Yes, certainly.  An Australian physicist John Daly took the time to calculate the temperature anomaly and by excluding any measurement stations that were subject to the urban heat island effect he discovered no warming trend in the United States at all. Clearing the forest and building cities creates a local heating effect.  So, yes anthropogenic warming is real but it's fairly local and not global.

                                                   29) Coral reefs not bleaching

                                                  28 Dec 2009, Hi folks, I have made a few minor corrections/updates to this page such as (sections):

                                                  7) Thought was link to Antarctic land ice but it was sea ice.  I have found some land-related data here which I may include later.

                                                  14) The link to the Greenland ice core also has Vostok ice core data, I didn't realise.

                                                  18)  Lindzen says is it 1C at most for a doubling of CO2 (purely based on ERBS data).
                                                  In an earlier doc of his Lord Monckton he says 1F not 1C but I think he later revised it to Lindzens estimate of 1C. In any case it would be much less than either of these.

                                                  19) Reverted to the original source's calculation - mine was out.


                                                  1. Gday Paul. A very thorough post !

                                                    Interesting to watch this particular hoax unwind, even my morning NZ Herald carrying articles like this..."What we do know, thanks to those hackers, is that the show's over. No one's told them in Copenhagen, but it is. Sound science doesn't need fake facts.
                                                    When scientists treat information like a cocktail waitress, i.e. something you can fool around with whenever it suits, it's time to break out the bubbly and head for the mall."


                                                  2. Thanks Micky,

                                                    It took me a couple of months to compile that!

                                                    The press in Australia, with very few exceptions like Andrew Bolt, refuse to utter the name Climategate in their attempts to explain Liberal's rise at the Greens and Labor expense. It's a cringe to hear them come up with every peripheral excuse other than: "we've been conned". I personally can't wait for the next election to boot Rudd out of office. Even people who still believe in AGW can see that Rudd loves his junkets and seems to be eyeing a position in the new world govt. I'm pretty sure he and Obama, Blair and probably even Schwarzenegger are coveting the "President of the World" post. Puke.

                                                  3. I decided to get Google adsense and now I've got ads in the sidebar advertising carbon neutrality! Tee hee! I'm sure I will earn 2c by the end of next year!