16 January 2010

On the 350 target

Apparently many persons in the environmental movement wish to cap CO2 at 350 parts per million in the earth's atmosphere.  It is presently at 389ppm.  They say it is at its highest level in 650,000 years.  Well, as I discussed on my summary page humans are not causing the CO2 increase (item 1) and can not control it.

Places like Realclimate say a slight reduction in the ratio of C13 to C12 is a fossil fuel signature because some deposits of oil and gas has more C12 than C13 in its composition when compared with the standard atmospheric ratio. Therefore when hydrocarbon resources are burned it releases slightly more C12 than C13 and alters the ratio found in the air. An increase in C12 has accompanied the overall increase of CO2 in air.  But as mentioned on my summary page the Russians and Ukrainians refute the claims of a uniform declination of dC13 in fossil reserves [1,2,3].  And Dr Roy Spencer has noted the distinct natural fingerprint on the Mauna Loa observations of CO2 rise and dC13 declination [1,2].

In the above two graphs first there is the inverse of the dC13 declination at Mauna Loa.  Second is the natural rise in CO2 as measured at the remote Mauna Loa Hawaii location.  Obviously the dC13 declination is not a fossil fuel signature but is highly correlated to the ocean CO2 signal measured at Mauna Loa. In other words the oceans are releasing the CO2 causing the recent rise from 1960 onwards.  It may again go down.

Carbon dioxide in fact varies up and down naturally just like everything else - temperature, moisture, weather etc.  It's all variable and it's all natural.

Random example of natural forcing: solar wind cycles.  The following is the correlation of land temps to solar wind:

We are told that CO2 levels are at their highest for 650,000 years thus creating the basis on which to hang other claims such as CO2 causes the warming. Example of faked CO2 graph from Wiki:

Discussion of this graph on wiki file talk includes the astute observation: "It is a violation of basic scientific principles to combine, on the same graph, data collected from Hawaii on CO2 levels with levels collected from Ice Cores on the other side of the planet. Not only do these different measurements likely measure different data, but they are likely incompatible as measures of Global CO2."

It is just like when Michael Mann used his Nature trick of adding in real temps to the tree proxy temps where it suited to hide the decline.

In truth CO2 has been as high as 500ppm or 600ppm in more recent times before and during industrialisation.

These papers summarise the science:  

http://www.anenglishmanscastle.com/180_years_accurate_Co2_Chemical_Methods.pdf  (broken link) New link: http://scmsa.eu/archives/ART_2006_Beck_CO2_report.pdf

Due to effect of compression of ice, decay and the effect of boring it out Antarctic ice core proxies for past CO2 levels are distorted.

Zbigniew Jaworowski shows that CO2 levels have been not that different than today for thousands of years.  He makes a statement to the US Senate in 2004:


(also reprinted here: http://www.john-daly.com/zjiceco2.htm)

Tim Ball describes it in journalistic form in the Canada Free Press here:

Pre-industrial CO2 levels were about the same as today


Another version of the third graph in Tim Balls article is here:

(full size)

P.S. Obviously I disagree with the 350 cause but I got a laugh when they actually managed to get that sticker on Lord Monckton's back without him noticing.

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